tour15 , pòker de cavendish/ ganarà voeckler ?

Consigue su cuarta etapa al sprint
Cavendish liga póker en el Tour de Francia

El británico de HTC supera a Farrar y Petacchi en la meta de Montpellier
Jornada poco atractiva y previsible que deja la general como estaba
Rojas cede varios puntos en su lucha por el maillot verde

Alberto Benítez 17/07/11 - 17:28.


1, 2, 3 y 4 victorias de Mark Cavendish en el Tour de Francia 2011. El esprínter más rápido del mundo fue lanzado en volandas hacia la victoria por el treno de HTC. Tyler Farrar y Alessandro Petacchi no tuvieron tiempo de discutir la etapa al hombre de Man en una jornada monótona y poco vistosa para el espectador. La general no se mueve y José Joaquín Rojas, quinto clasificado en meta, cede puntos en su lucha por el verde.

El esprínter de HTC lleva un póker casi insuperable en esta Grand Boucle. Todavía queda el paseo triunfal del pelotón por los Campos Elíseos de París en la última jornada del Tour, donde Mark Cavendish volverá a ser el hombre a batir. El británico tiene a tiro repetir las cinco victorias cosechadas en la ronda gala de 2010.

Normal que el Team Sky esté tentando al bueno de 'Cavs' con un contrato millonario. Tener al británico en sus filas es una garantía espectacular de grandes victorias. Eso sí, esta vez Cavendish tendrá que agradecer y mucho la victoria a sus compañeros de HTC. Farrar y Petacchi parecían más fuertes en los últimos metros, pero Tony Martin, Goss y Renshaw dejaron al británico a tan solo unas pedaladas de meta.

Antes, durante los 192 kilómetros que unían Limoux y Montpellier, fueron una invitación a la siesta para los aficionados a este deporte. Trepstra (Quick Step), Dumoulin (Cofidis), Delaplace (Saur), Ignatiev (Katusha) y, el de siempre, Delage (FDJ), fraguaron su fuga en el kilómetro 1 y HTC se dedicó a mantenerla a como mucho 4 minutos del pelotón.
El sprint por la victoria era inevitable. HTC y Garmin apretaban y tiraban la fuga abajo en el momento perfecto, a poco más de 10 kilómetros de meta. Philippe Gilbert, que sueña con el maillot verde, lo intentó en un repecho a dos kilómetros de la llegada pero la empresa era imposible.

HTC dejaba a Cavendish a 300 metros de la llegada con una ventaja considerable. El joven Oss (Liquigas) se agarraba a la rueda del favorito, no aprecía Greipel y Farrar, junto a Petacchi, progresaban por la izquierda.

Pero era imposible, el treno de HTC no había dejado esperanzas para nadie. Rojas sólo pudo ser quinto y se sitúa a 37 puntos del británico en la lucha por el 'maillot' verde. Casi inalcanzable. La general, un día más, no se mueve.
http://www.marca.com/2011/07/17/ciclismo/tour_francia/1310916460.html

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étape 15 - Limoux Montpellier 192.5 km
Domingo 17 julio
Cavendish sigue acumulando victorias…

¿Acaso había alguien que albergaba dudas? Si hay un sprint, ahí está Mark Cavendish para anotarse una nueva victoria en el Tour de Francia. En una etapa en la que había solo una pequeña ascensión y en la que el fuerte viento ha azotado al pelotón entre Limoux y Montpellier, el equipo HTC Express ha vuelto a lanzar a su capitán a la meta, donde Mark ha rematado la faena por delante de Tyler Farrar, Alessandro Petacchi y Daniel Oss. Otros sprinters no han tenido opciones en el día de hoy y el ganador en Carmaux no ha entrado en escena: André Greipel quedaba fuera de la contienda tras perder la rueda de su lanzador, y Philippe Gilbert, que trataba de adelantarse para cazar a los escapados de la etapa a falta de tres kilómetros para la meta, tan solo ha logrado la 28ª posición, una por delante de Cadel Evans.

Aunque se temía que el viento hiciera estragos como en las etapas llanas de la primera semana, lo cierto es que no ha habido caos en la llegada. El vencedor de esta etapa de 193 km ha aumentado su margen en la carrera por el maillot verde mientras que Thomas Voeckler ha cruzado la meta en 71ª posición, conservando su maillot amarillo.

Informe
Llovía antes del inicio de la 15ª etapa pero la calzada estaba seca para cuando ha arrancado la carrera a las 12h59. En total 170 hombres tomaban la salida de la etapa del día entre Limoux y Montpellier, que incluía una ascensión de cuarta categoría, la del puerto de Villespassans (a km 82) y un sprint intermedio en Montagnac (en el km 146,5). La temperatura en la salida era de solo 15 grados centígrados y las condiciones meteorológicas estaban llamadas a entrar en juego, pues se esperaba una jornada especialmente ventosa en los departamentos de Aude y Hérault, con vientos del noreste (de costado o cruzados, por tanto, para los corredores) a aproximadamente 50km/h.

Una vez más, en el momento en que caía la bandera que marca el inicio de la etapa, se producía una escapada, en este caso instigada por un corredor de la escuadra FDJ. Al paso por el km 3, había 5 corredores en cabeza, con un margen de 1’05 sobre el pelotón: Delage (FDJ), Tepstra (QST), Ignatiev (KAT), Dumoulin (COF) y Delaplace (SAU). El pelotón les dejaba acumular una renta de 3’55” en el km 16, pero entonces dos corredores de HTC se colocaban al frente del pelotón y se encargaban de mantener a los fugados a una distancia razonable: 3’10” en el km 40, por ejemplo. La velocidad media de la primera hora era de 45,1km/h. El pelotón contaba con viento a favor durante la primera parte de la etapa. Sin embargo, tras 1 hora y 50 minutos de carrera, la ventaja de los escapados aumentaba por encima de los cuatro minutos (4’15” en el km 80, siendo esta la renta máxima de la que han gozado los fugados). Ignatiev se adelantaba para arañar el punto en liza en la subida al puerto, cuando el pelotón se encontraba a 3’10”. En el km 85, nueve corredores de HTC se posicionaban al frente del pelotón. La velocidad media durante la segunda hora era de 41,9km/h.

El quinteto escapado, firme hasta prácticamente el final
Durante gran parte de la etapa se mantenía el status quo, con los escapados por delante y los hombres de HTC manteniendo una diferencia de 3 minutos. No obstante, las cosas cambiaban avanzada la etapa, cuando el margen caía a 1’55” tras tres horas de carrera. La velocidad media durante la tercera hora ha sido de 43,5km/h. Ha sido necesario un final de photo finish para determinar que ha sido Delage quien se ha impuesto en el sprint intermedio a Dumoulin, adjudicándose 20 puntos. Los corredores habituales tomaban después posiciones para conquistar la sexta plaza en Montagnac. Finalmente Cavendish se ha impuesto a Rojas y Gilbert 1’00” por detrás de los fugados. La ventaja de los fugados aumentaba a 1’40” a falta de 40 km para la meta.

Preparando el sprint…
Con 30 km por delante, el equipo HTC se retrasaba momentáneamente de su posición al frente del pelotón, dejando a Saxo Bank-SunGard plantar cara al viento durante varios kilómetros. Después HTC volvía a colocarse al frente, con Bak encargado de hacer gran parte del trabajo, a 1’15” de los escapados. A falta de 22,5km, Ignatiev lanzaba un ataque en el grupo cabecero. Terpstra salía a la caza y le alcanzaba un kilómetro después. Con 20 km por delante, el dúo adelantaba en 18” a los otros tres fugados y en 55” al pelotón. Delage, Dumoulin y Delaplace eran engullidos por el pelotón a 16 km de la línea de meta, cuando la ventaja de Ignatiev y Terpstra era de 40”. Ignatiev cedía después y dejaba que le alcanzara el pelotón a 6 km del final, mientras que la ventaja de Tepstra era de solo 10”. El holandés era finalmente alcanzado a 3 km de la meta, y justo después de que esto ocurriera, Gilbert aprovechaba para atacar. Durante breves instantes le acompañaban Roux (FDJ) y Marcato (VCD), que eran engullidos por el grupo a falta de 2 km para el final.

Cavendish, de nuevo
En Lavaur, tras su tercera victoria en la presente edición del Tour, Mark Cavendish dijo que quedaban dos días en los que podía proclamarse vencedor de etapa: Montpellier y París. Su equipo ha pasado gran parte de la etapa de hoy al frente del pelotón, lanzando a su capitán a una posición ganadora. Renshaw ha sido el último en tirar de él hasta la batalla por las plazas de honor. Cavendish arrancaba entonces acompañado de Oss (LIQ) y Farrar (GRM), protagonizando un agresivo sprint en el que el italiano y el estadounidense siempre han ido a la zaga gracias al buen trabajo de Renshaw. ‘Supermanx’ se adjudicaba así su cuarta victoria tras el sprint con Farrar y Petacchi, con Oss clasificado en cuarta posición en la llegada a Montpellier.
Thomas Voeckler, por su parte, finalizaba en 71ª posición, en el mismo tiempo que el vencedor de la etapa. El francés volverá a enfundarse el maillot amarillo durante la etapa número 16, tras la jornada de descanso en el departamento del Drôme.



Mark Cavendish: “Estoy muy orgulloso de mis compañeros”

Una etapa de perfil llano es todo lo que necesita el equipo HTC-Highroad para calentar motores. El viento azotaba al pelotón entre Limoux y Montpellier pero hay algo que ha permanecido inmutable: el equipo de Mark Cavendish se ha mantenido firme de principio a fin, lanzando a su sprinter a una nueva victoria de etapa en el Tour de Francia.

“No me he sentido muy bien hoy, a decir verdad, pero creo que los demás tampoco. Ha sido un día cargado de nerviosismo, con todos los corredores luchando por colocarse al frente. Tengo suerte porque tengo a un grupo de compañeros que me mantienen fuera de peligro en la delantera, lo cual reduce la presión, aunque eso no quita que sea difícil. Ha sido un día de altibajos, con vientos cruzados. Ha sido una etapa difícil pero ha terminado al sprint y mis compañeros han sabido controlar la situación. Me han lanzado a la perfección hasta los últimos 200 metros.”
“Para mí significa muchísimo lo que hacen por mí. Trabajan muy duro para ayudarme. Me han ayudado en las montañas. No ha sido fácil llegar hasta aquí y ganar de nuevo.”
“Al final hemos luchado contra equipos de la general. Sky ha peleado un poco, pero Matt ha conseguido lanzar a Mark Renshaw hasta los últimos 700 metros y después Mark ha tirado de mí durante 600 metros cuesta arriba. A 200 metros me ha cedido el relevo. Al principio no sabía muy bien qué hacer pues había viento de cara. Ha sido difícil pero finalmente he conseguido imponerme así que estoy feliz.”

http://www.letour.fr/2011/TDF/LIVE/es/1500/journal_etape.html




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Saturday, July 16, 2011
Tour de France: Post-Pyrenees state of the race

The Tour leaves the Pyrenees with more questions: State of the race and insights

The 2011 Tour de France has continued to throw up question after question, and today's finishing climb up Plateau de Beille has proved no different. This was the stage that was supposed to bring the curtain down on Thomas Voeckler's reign in yellow. But yet again, as has been the case the whole Tour, for every question that was answered, two new questions emerged and we are still no closer to knowing who will be wearing the final yellow jersey into Paris next Sunday.

The stage today included the brutal pull up the Plateau de Beille, 15.8 km at an average of 7.9%. It's the hardest climb of the race so far, and it's the final climb of the Pyrenees. Thomas Voeckler had 1:49 over the chasing group, and the general projection was that he'd be dropped near the base of the climb as a result of the aggressive racing between the Big 5.

Well, it turns out that Voeckler had other ideas, and the only thing we know tonight, as we head into some flat stages before the Alps, is that the Big 5 that consisted of Frank and Andy Schleck, Cadel Evans, Ivan Basso and Alberto Contador now has a new member. And for the duration of the 2011 Tour, it's the Big 6 - Voeckler is now part of that group, whether by virtue of the amazing climbing form he showed today (he didn't just survive on the climb, he actually responded sharply to attacks and looked composed), or his 1:49 advantage. And it sets the Alps up as fascinating for reasons that few could have foreseen before the race began.

The climb unpacked

More analysis of the climb will come tomorrow, as soon as SRM publish the data from Sorensen. That will unfortunately add limited information, because Chris Anke Sorensen stayed with the head of the field for only a few kilometers of the final climb. However, we'll take a look at that tomorrow.

Some of the estimates for the performance are in, however. I can tell you that the main group did the climb (by my watch) in 46:53. Jelle Vanendert, who claimed second on the climb to Luz Ardiden two days ago, went one better and won the stage with an attack about 7 km from the finish. He did the climb in about 46:05. Incidentally, the fastest performance on this climb belongs to Marco Pantani, a 43:30 back in 1998 (but this was on a slightly shorter time). Other notable performances are a 44:17 by Contador and Michael Rasmussen in 2007, and a 45:40 by Armstrong and Basso in 2004. So today was a slow climb - won in 46:05, with the big favourites doing 46:53.

Tactics, conditions? Of course, but without wishing to focus a whole post on this, the climbing performances have clearly changed in the last two or three years. Once-off slower performances on isolated climbs are easily explained by race situation or weather, but it has been two years, and about a dozen climbs, and we see a consistent increase in the time taken to ride these big climbs. The pattern then is quite clear, and today's performances conformed to that pattern.

In terms of the power output estimates, for those interested, it projects to about 5.9 W/kg for Vanendert, with the chase group averaging around 5.7 W/kg (assuming 65kg riders - the range doesn't change too much). As mentioned, I'll check the numbers more when the SRM data provide some context.

Tactical sparring

However, this was anything but a one-paced climb. It was, as expected, Andy and Frank Schleck who were primarily responsible for the repeated attacks. Those attacks were ultimately responsible for producing a fairly stop-start climb in that chase group, because as aggressive as the attacks were, they were short, and always followed by a lull in the pace as the group rejoined. The result is that the attacks would stretch the top 10, even causing small splits, but it always came back together, and by around 5km to go, even riders dropped on the early slopes had rejoined the elite group.

Meanwhile, as it had been on Luz Ardiden, the time gap to the leaders out on the road told a good part of the story. At the start of the climb, the gap to Sandy Casar out ahead was 2:10. It was chipped by about 10 seconds per kilometer from then on, until Vanendert assumed the lead with 5km to go. From that point, Vanendert actually increased his lead, because the attack-then-sit up nature of the chase behind was allowing his steadier rhythm to move away.

Massive groups

It's been a long, long time since I've seen such large groups on HC climbs at the end of Tour stages. The group was 24-strong at 4km gone, and there were 13 men battling it out only 4km from the summit of a finishing climb in the Tour de France (has it ever happened?). The days of brutally hard tempo riding from the start of the climb, eliminating all but two or three rivals, seem a distant memory.

When you think about it logically, you would expect large groups because a) the differences between riders at this level should small at only a few percent, and b) there is a drafting benefit that is equal to or larger than the natural performance differences between riders at that, even on the climbs at relatively slower speeds of about 20km/hour. This is what helps the peloton stay together so that 180 men can finish flat stages together, and I dare suggest it's normal for climbs to have so many men together, especially in the first mountain range because the cumulative fatigue effect is so much smaller.

Consider for example that in marathon running, lasting 125 minutes, the gap between the best in the world and 40th best is only 4%, and you realize that it's normal for elite performers to be bunched within a few percent of one another. Then consider that a drafting effect of only 5% would offset a potential performance effect of 4%, and suddenly, the size of the groups is expected. This doesn't take into account attacks and the ability to change pace quickly, but when the group is so big to begin with, even rapid accelerations are buffered because there are sufficient riders to gradually pull back attacks. Only those at their limit are gapped permanently, and that's what we saw today - the top 5 or 6 were riding at one level, and those behind, in the elite group but not in the top 5, were benefitting from repeated accelerations and then slower periods of regrouping. Had the pace been hard and consistent, that group would have thinned, but still, seven or eight at the front of the race, that's a large group. But it's encouraging for the sport, and certainly adds to the intrigue of this year's Tour.

Neutralized attacks

Also gone is the destructiveness of the attacks. Today, Andy Schleck attacked around five or six times (and the attacks came much sooner than on Luz Ardiden), with Frank Schleck making a couple of moves of his own, but each one was marked almost instantly and neutralized. Only Ivan Basso joined in the attacks, until the final kilometer when Cadel Evans made something of a bid. Again, they were neutralized almost immediately, and the group was glued together. In the end, the only attacks that succeeded were those that were allowed to go - first Vanendert and then Sammy Sanchez.

Ivan Basso was actually critical of the Schlecks after the stage, saying that they needed to thin the group down to four or five and then make attacks, rather than attacking when the group consisted of twenty riders. That's all good and well, but the Schlecks may not have the artillery to make that happen. Today, the intensity on the early slopes was clearly higher than it had been on Luz Ardiden, but the group remained large - I counted 24 men still in the group a full 4km into the climb. The Leopard-Trek effort was thus not sufficient to cut the group down.

I am not sure what the Schlecks, or anyone else, can do to cut that group to four or five, as Basso suggests. The Schleck attacks could perhaps be sustained for longer - they have sat up very quickly after being marked, and perhaps the answer is to go off the front and hold that higher tempo for a few more minutes, to really test the followers.

But that is easy to say. The question is: Can the elite riders go any faster? I'm beginning to suspect the answer is no, not by as much as one may think. The top 6 riders in the Tour (and yes, I'd include Voeckler in this based on today) are locked together so tightly, that I don't see anyone just riding a hard tempo and doing damage to anyone but themselves at the front. Given how quickly attacks were followed, I wonder whether perhaps the group would form with five or six riders who would then be pulled along by whoever the "risk-taker" is, until he himself is burned off. Perhaps the Schlecks will have to agree who this will be and the sacrifice can be made, because they will see Evans' time-trial as the big threat to their yellow aspirations.

The Alps - cumulative fatigue effects and look for bad days to eliminate riders, rather than great days to win it

This is what sets the Alps up so intriguingly. Given how tight and competitive the racing on the climbs has been, it is beginning to appear (to me, anyway) that for any given rider, this Tour may be lost by a bad day, rather than won by a decisive move. Within that group of 6 riders, one will be eliminated more by their inability to produce the power outputs we have seen in these two mountain top finishes than it is by one big attack and one remarkable performance.

Then there is the effect of cumulative fatigue - in the third week of any Grand Tour, it is fatigue resistance that makes a huge impact, and so we should expect to see a thinning of the numbers, because riders have limited energy and may have allocated a great deal to ride in that group of 12 on climbs like today. So the group should thin, and perhaps Basso will have his wish of attacking against half a dozen. But within the top 6, it really is taking the shape that one will be eliminated by a bad day where they lose time to the other five, rather than by a great day where one of them rides away from the other five.

As the race hits the Alps, however, there'll be a good deal more desperation, longer attacks and less cagey tactics. The individual time-trial that awaits next Saturday will start to dictate strategy more than the current time gaps do, and it may produce some more risky racing.

I think the Pyrenees have produced hard racing, probably not quite maximal, because of cagey tactical battles and conservatism. That will end in the Alps, certainly by Alp d'Huez, but probably on Thursday's brutal stage.

Thomas Voeckler - can he hold on?

As for Voeckler, one is tempted to take the default option and say that he "survived" today's stage and kept his yellow jersey. I think that this is incorrect. He looked sprightly to me, and covered every move relatively quickly. I'll watch the stage again, but I don't recall an occasion where he was pulled up to an attack by someone else - he did the work for himself and that suggests that he may not have been at his absolute limit. If anything, he didn't need to ride as fast and as hard as he did today, and he might well have conserved a little more energy. But had it been Andy Schleck or Alberto Contador in yellow, everyone would be saying how solidly they controlled the race and how composed they looked. And Voeckler deserves to be spoken of as a realistic contender now.

As for the Alps, I expect that the intensity will be a little higher, particularly on the finishing climbs of the Galibier and Alp d'Huez. If we work with the estimations from Luz Ardiden and today (and bear with me - the assumptions are applied to all riders, so it's relative), then it seems that the elite of the race are climbing at an average of 5.7 to 5.9 W/kg. I expect that this will increase up to 6 to 6.1 W/kg at some point, either on Thursday or Friday (Alp d'Huez).

If we assume that Voeckler cannot match that increase, then he'll lose time, no question. How much? Well, over 40 minutes of climbing on Alp d'Huez, if Voeckler rides at 5.8 W/kg as has done in the Pyrenees, and the others ride at 6W/kg, then he'll lose approximately one minute on the climb. In order to lose the entire 1:49 lead, he has to slow down far more relative to his performances in the Pyrenees - we're talking in the order of 5.5 W/kg, or the likes of Schleck, Evans and Basso have to find a huge increase in power output (which I don't believe is possible).

Of course, it's conceivable that Voeckler will break at some point. If that happens, and he cracks, then he loses minutes and the race is back on between the big 5. However, if he can just remain solid, and continue to hold the kind of level we have seen in the Pyrenees, then he looks a good bet to hold that yellow jersey all the way to the individual time-trial, because the main rivals probably have only a minute's worth of 'capacity' or 'reserve' to improve by. One more day like today, and even a small time loss on the other big Alp day will see Voeckler ride the time trial in yellow. And of course, there is no guarantee that Voeckler himself doesn't have the capacity to ride even faster than we saw today. And what a story that would be!

A Tour of questions continues

We started this Tour, two weeks ago, with questions. Was Andy Schleck timing his peak to perfection? Could Alberto Contador recover and peak again after the Giro? Would Cadel Evans be able to avoid the one bad day that costs the Tour? And here we are, 14 stages in, and we have no answers!

Every day, we get new questions. We still wonder about Andy Schleck. We still have doubts over Contador, who looked better today, but not back to his best or we would have seen at least one counter-attack. Is he recovering from week 1 and the crashes, or is he just flat from the Giro? We are none the wiser. But we now have a host of new questions, most of them about a Frenchman in yellow who is not merely clinging to the jersey, but controlling it.

All in all, the Pyrenees may have produced some conservative racing, and maybe even frustration in observers wanting longer, more aggressive attacks. Physiologically, that may not be possible. But they produced enthralling racing, and that seems set to continue. A few flatter days now, and a rest day, and then it's the decisive days. Then again, we said that on Thurday and today!

More analysis tomorrow - will look briefly at Sorensen's data, because it has limited value - we already know the climb today was relatively slow and that the power outputs will be in the same range as they were on Luz Ardiden. And so we wait for the Alps!

http://www.sportsscientists.com/2011/07/tour-de-france-post-pyrenees-state-of.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+blogspot/cJKs+%28The+Science+of+Sport%29